Weather Reports: When In Doubt, Kill the Messenger
Posted: Thursday, December 18, 2008
by Mike Fak
http://mikefak.com
Well this is just turning into a dandy winter in central Illinois. We have had ice and snow and bitter cold and somewhere in the midst of all this is a Christmas coming up.
Just last week we had a day in the mid 50s with delightful 40 mph winds to take any enjoyment right out of the temperature.
The weather really has an effect on the news business.
The biggest problem in the news business with bad weather however is the fact that we need to report the forecasts, which many times are not even close to what actually ends up happening.
It's almost like calling the winner of an election or giving the winning score in an important game and then finding out the next day, your report was bogus. Of course we, the media, get plastered with complaints when all we are doing is passing on what so-called experts told us would happen, although it didn't.
As I write this today, we are being told we might be facing an ice storm of biblical proportions.
I'm not stretching the truth there. The National Weather Service is saying we definitely will get rain and freezing rain, sometimes heavy. With a temperature hovering at or below zero they are stating we could see up to of an inch of ice in the next day.
You all know what just a coating of ice can do. Imagine what havoc an inch of ice could do to the area.
Yet, when you go to the Weather Channel website, they show only a chance of rain. But they also have a "winter ice storm warning" in red that directs you back to the doom and gloom of the NWS report.
Now I am all for the NWS being wrong and we get only a mist or it stays too warm to create an ice pond out of my house, cars, streets and internet towers. Still the NWS is saying don't go out tonight. Travel could be impossible; there is the possibility for downed power lines and extended periods of power outages. Emergency services are saying to get potable water and flashlight batteries. They recommend we stock plenty of foodstuffs so we don't start pondering if the family pet will fit on the old Weber grill if things get really bad like in Ohio last week.
And so you have to tell readers the doom and gloom forecast and keep updating it, which is just more of the same old "Oh man this could be bad" jargon.
I have already had a few e-mails asking why I say we are going to get murdered when the Weather Channel isn't making that big of a deal out of things calling for just a "wintry mix".
I explain we aren't saying anything and that we are just reporting what the experts are telling us.
I remember the great snowfall of 67 in Chicago. The forecast called for a fairly heavy snowfall of four inches or so and everyone went to work. A day, and two feet of snow later, a city was paralyzed. I remember walking to work with my father and after two hours and four miles we couldn't find the factory door because we were above it.
That early foray into not trusting forecasts has entered my mind as I continue to post doom and gloom on the page.
Of course like in 1967 and so many times since, this all could be an incorrect forecast and pass with just a little inconvenience or problem. But then again they could be right this time and everyone needs to know so they can make their own decisions on what to do.
I think I'll enjoy taking the butt-chewing if this all blows past. Since I would have been ribbed for not telling everyone about this if it does come to be, I can't win anyway.
After all, when in doubt, kill the messenger.
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Top-level comments on this article: (1 total)Yes Mike "everything is beautiful, in its own way" etc. Please don't disturb the tranquility with truth, reality, possibilities we would rather be positive. Best Wishes. Facetiously, like our president, remember to duck.Thanks Bob. Merry Christmas to you and yours. I always duck.Mike
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